Thursday, August 12, 2010

What's next?

For the past 2 months since the Euro/dollar found a bottom at around 1.1876 in early June, it has been leading and moving in step with the equities market.







You would have seen the 2% sell off coming if you have noticed that the euro/dollar has been breaking and making lower lows in the shorter time frame.

As mentioned earlier, the general sentiment was too bullish and a short term top is in. STI has lost about 100 points since the high made at 3043. However, notice how conveniently and easily STI has bounced off resistance from the 3030-3040 region(the last high in mid April) Stubborn shorts would most likely be initiated here betting on STI to continue trading in its range but i always believe that the seemingly obvious scenario usually turns out wrong.

I think this is just a technical correction and we won't see another more than 10% pullback. The market will jump start again once it found support.

However please note that this is just a likely scenario i have anticipated it to play out but i will not showhand. It is always good to consider the different scenarios of how the situation would play out. Long only when the market has found support. 

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